International students in the U.S. make up approximately half of STEM graduate enrollments and foreign-born workers account for nearly a third of the high-skill STEM workforce. This study by two economists and an immigration attorney looks at the broad, long-term, nation-wide economic effects of recently proposed federal policies that reduce the ability of the U.S. to attract and retain international students. These policies include rescission of Optional Practical Training (OPT), elimination of duration of status admissions, and allocation of H-1B visas based on seniority, with or without $100,000 entry fee. The writers model two scenarios. The first is the impact of a one-third decline in foreign STEM graduates from U.S. institutions transitioning to the U.S. workforce. This reduction, they estimate, would result in 6-11% fewer high-skill STEM workers in the workforce overall. Current research suggests that within ten years this decline would lead to long-run GDP losses of $240 to $481 billion annually. The second scenario looks at the impact of a one-tenth decline in foreign STEM graduates from U.S. institutions transitioning to the U.S. workforce, either through eliminating duration of status admissions or H-1B visa restrictions alone. Under this scenario, long-run GDP losses within ten years would amount to $72 to 145 billion each year. The evidence reviewed suggests that these effects would not be offset by rapid substitution from U.S. natives or foreign-trained workers abroad. Instead, the writers argue, curtailing the pipeline of U.S-trained international graduates would erode America’s advantage in innovation, weaken regional technology clusters, and slow entrepreneurial activity. (Jeffrey Vega, Ph.D.)
Brain Freeze: How International Student Exclusion Will Shape the STEM Workforce and Economic Growth in the United States,
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,
October 2025, 31 pp.
Authors: Michael A. Clemens et al